Strategic Intelligence Feed

Real-time analysis of the resources and power shifts redefining global sovereignty

The Rule That Was Suspended and the Rule That Was Not

The Rule That Was Suspended and the Rule That Was Not

On the tenth of November a Chinese suspension expires. Six export control announcements issued last October, including an extraterritorial rule that would claim jurisdiction over any product anywhere in the world containing as little as a tenth of one percent by value of Chinese rare earth material, were put on...

3 min read
Nobody Stopped Mining and the Price Fell by Half

Nobody Stopped Mining and the Price Fell by Half

Platinum set an all time high of 2,923 dollars an ounce on the twenty sixth of January this year. It trades near 1,665 today. That is a fall of about forty three percent in under nine months, and it happened without a single significant thing going wrong on

3 min read
The Cash Pool That Buys the Short Paper

The Cash Pool That Buys the Short Paper

At the end of September the Treasury had 7.12 trillion dollars of bills outstanding, which is 22.4 percent of all marketable federal debt. At the end of 2022 the same share was 15.4 percent. The Treasury's own borrowing advisory committee recommends the bill share stay

3 min read
Four Years Below Breakeven

Four Years Below Breakeven

American farm debt is forecast at 605.1 billion dollars this year. Adjusted for inflation, that is about six percent above the previous peak, which was 1980. The year 1980 is not an arbitrary comparison. It is the year immediately before the worst agricultural credit collapse in modern American history.

3 min read
What the Tariff Actually Bought

What the Tariff Actually Bought

American steel mills ran at 78.3 percent of capacity in the week to the third of October, producing 1,801,000 net tons. Output is up 5.3 percent so far this year. Imports are down 19.6 percent. Hot rolled coil sells for about 1,220 dollars a

3 min read
Eleven Times the Price and Five Hundred Megawatts

Eleven Times the Price and Five Hundred Megawatts

On the fourteenth of July the grid operator that runs the electricity market from Chicago to the Atlantic held its capacity auction for the 2028 and 2029 delivery year. Capacity is not energy. It is a payment made to a generator simply for existing and being available on the worst

3 min read
The Price Broke on a Spreadsheet

The Price Broke on a Spreadsheet

On the eighth of September the price reporting agency that most of the lithium market uses changed how it samples Chinese inventory. Reported stocks of lithium carbonate went from 78,800 tonnes to 175,000 overnight. No metal moved. Futures on the Guangzhou exchange fell more than fourteen percent in

3 min read
A Record Price and a Surplus in the Same Market

A Record Price and a Surplus in the Same Market

Copper set a record on the London Metal Exchange last month at 14,875 dollars a tonne, and a record in New York at 6.83 dollars a pound. The International Copper Study Group, which does this for a living, expects the refined market to run a surplus of about

3 min read
The Bridge Between Two Bar Standards Just Closed

The Bridge Between Two Bar Standards Just Closed

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange delisted one of its gold futures contracts this month. It was called Gold Enhanced Delivery, it had been listed since April 2020, and it died with no open interest at all. Nobody noticed, and that is the interesting part, because of what it was built to

3 min read
Eleven Billion Dollars of Gold

Eleven Billion Dollars of Gold

The United States government owns 261,498,926 fine troy ounces of gold, about 8,133 tonnes. On the Treasury's own books that holding is carried at 42.2222 dollars an ounce, a price fixed by statute in 1973, which values the entire national gold reserve at 11,

3 min read
A Fifteen Year Old Ship Is Worth More Than a New One

A Fifteen Year Old Ship Is Worth More Than a New One

The Baltic Exchange's average earnings figure for very large crude carriers was 722,946 dollars a day on the eighteenth of September. A year earlier it was 79,700. The progression through this year runs 198,000 dollars in July, 272,000 in August, about 449,000 in

3 min read
What a Quota Can Do and What It Cannot

What a Quota Can Do and What It Cannot

The Democratic Republic of the Congo produces roughly three quarters of the world's mined cobalt. In February last year its minerals regulator suspended all cobalt exports, industrial and artisanal alike, on the stated grounds that there was too much stock on the market. The suspension was extended twice

3 min read
The Capital Is Leaving and the Tonnage Is Not

The Capital Is Leaving and the Tonnage Is Not

Anglo American agreed in May to sell its Australian steelmaking coal business to Dhilmar for up to 3.875 billion dollars, with 2.3 billion in cash at completion and the rest contingent on prices over five years. Together with an earlier sale of its Jellinbah stake the company will

3 min read

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